Any activity requires investment. Before investing in a business, you should understand how long it will take for your income to exceed the initial costs. Let’s take a closer look at such an important financial concept as a payback period, how it is calculated, and the positive and negative aspects of this method.

What Is the Payback Period?

The payback period is the time it takes for your earnings to cover your start-up costs. The moment when your profit from the business becomes positive is the payback point. Up to this point, the investment is unprofitable. The sooner you get a profit, the better for you or your investors. The longer period means higher risks. In this material, we talk about the basic formula for calculating the payback period. A simple payback period rule is not very flexible and is intended for general calculations rather than precise analysis. The simple formula does not take into account the time value of money and ignores the fact that enterprises can generate different profits in different periods. If you want to get a more accurate estimate, you can use the so-called discounted payback period. Its formula is more complicated because you need more data for it.

What Is the Importance of the Payback Period?

The payback rule is a quick way to assess opportunities and risks and select areas for investment. It is one of the metrics that you should define. That is, ceteris paribus, the project whose payback period is lower, can be considered less risky and more attractive. Without these calculations, there is a possibility that you will invest in a business that will turn out to be unprofitable, or, conversely, you might miss out on a profitable opportunity. That is why knowing how to find the payback period is crucial. While the “shorter is better” rule applies to most businesses, you should know the industry’s and the company’s features you invest in when doing your analysis. So, longer payback periods can be for start-ups since there is no or little data on annual income and for large corporations that plan to expand/grow or optimize production. So to understand if a payback period is good, study the context.

How to Calculate the Payback Period?

The basic payback period formula is quite simple to understand. That is why this method is attractive to investors and financial professionals. With just a few pieces of data about a project, you can determine its attractiveness and ROI.

The formula for the payback period

The standard scheme for calculating the payback period is as follows: Cost of investments / Annual cash flow = Payback period That is, to determine the moment when your investment will pay off, you need to divide the cost of the initial investment by the average profit during the year. This formula applies to various areas. With its help, businesses can determine how profitable it will be to purchase expensive equipment. For example, this way, you can calculate the feasibility of buying and installing solar panels for your production. Moreover, you can rely on this scheme as a company owner and self-employed person who uses the expense tracker app and other simple software for their business.

Example of payback period calculation

Let’s answer “How do you calculate the payback period?” with a simple example. Imagine that your initial investment is $2 million. The company in which this money is invested generates $50 000 a year. Thus, the payback period for this project is four years. Is this a good time frame? It is impossible to say unequivocally because its assessment depends on the business size, the characteristics of its work, and even the region. For example, for B2B enterprises, 12 months is an excellent indicator, while 24 months is considered just acceptable. If small and B2C companies have a payback period of 1 month, it is an excellent indicator, while 12 months is considered acceptable. Applying this simple payback period formula can be tricky when doing start-up calculations. In such cases, it might be challenging to determine the lifetime value of the entire project and the annual income due to the small amount of historical data. Moreover, small companies that have just started might not pay off at all.

Advantages and Disadvantages of the Payback Period

The payback period calculation is an essential step in determining investment directions. We’ll take a closer look at the pros and cons of this approach so that you can make an informed decision and plan for action using the budget maker.

Method advantages

This approach has several pros that make it convenient for entrepreneurs and investors:

• Calculating the payback period is simple and does not require analyzing a large amount of data.
• With this metric, you can quickly compare multiple investment destinations.
• You can discard the riskiest and most dubious projects (with a long period).
• It clearly demonstrates the potential profitability of a business.

Determining the payback period is extremely important for fast-growing industries, such as fintech and data analysis, where investments quickly become obsolete.

Method disadvantages

Although the described approach has a number of advantages, financial experts highlight several cons that you need to take into account in your analysis:

• The formula’s simplicity leads to the fact that some important details, such as the time value of money and additional cash flows, are not taken into account.
• Some assets have a short lifespan and don’t generate income after the payback period.
• Calculations do not take into account additional costs for the company’s optimization, pauses in production, and changes in the market situation, in particular, consumer demand, seasonal fluctuations, and competition.
• This approach uses average income indicators, which makes an accurate analysis impossible.
• The formula focuses solely on determining when the initial investment will pay off and does not help determine the final profitability of the entire business.

The approach has several drawbacks, many of which are related to the fact that the formula operates with general indicators. For a more accurate investment analysis, use other methods like the internal rate of return (IRR) or the net present value (NPV).

How to Use the Payback Method Effectively

Analysis of the investments’ acceptability based on the payback period has both pros and significant cons. That is why it should not be used as the main or only method. To minimize its disadvantages:

• Use the formula for general market screening.
• Consider other essential factors like additional cash flows and the time value of money.
• Study the context and features of a company.
• After a general analysis, use more precise methods like NPV and IRR.

Now you know how to determine the payback period and how to use this indicator to analyze projects for investment more effectively.